Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.119410 0.134757 0.151347 0.170620 0.192400 0.216261 0.244398
2025-12-21 0.094307 0.114285 0.137478 0.166411 0.201578 0.242983 0.295512
2025-12-28 0.079408 0.102632 0.131385 0.169655 0.219353 0.281842 0.366608
2026-01-04 0.065745 0.090187 0.122312 0.167719 0.230431 0.314270 0.435347
2026-01-11 0.055958 0.081151 0.116159 0.168509 0.245116 0.353608 0.519825
2026-01-18 0.048683 0.074371 0.111979 0.171274 0.262895 0.399897 0.621848
2026-01-25 0.040444 0.064836 0.102319 0.164396 0.265301 0.424036 0.694989
2026-02-01 0.033492 0.056163 0.092614 0.155829 0.263588 0.441376 0.760166
2026-02-08 0.028572 0.049991 0.085933 0.151041 0.267144 0.467559 0.844153
2026-02-15 0.024407 0.044445 0.079447 0.145514 0.268448 0.489931 0.925001
2026-02-22 0.022102 0.041821 0.077623 0.147932 0.284239 0.540173 1.064993
2026-03-01 0.019229 0.037712 0.072506 0.143415 0.286281 0.565142 1.160570
2026-03-08 0.016923 0.034418 0.068582 0.140882 0.292373 0.599996 1.284530
2026-03-15 0.014944 0.031478 0.064924 0.138333 0.298087 0.635156 1.415880
2026-03-22 0.013801 0.030080 0.064171 0.141709 0.316834 0.700486 1.624817
2026-03-29 0.012406 0.027933 0.061534 0.140600 0.325620 0.745765 1.796921
2026-04-05 0.011353 0.026382 0.059961 0.141634 0.339468 0.804727 2.012458
2026-04-12 0.010531 0.025233 0.059118 0.144230 0.357450 0.876319 2.272605
2026-04-19 0.009276 0.022874 0.055136 0.138654 0.354594 0.897225 2.407793
2026-04-26 0.008096 0.020520 0.050828 0.131591 0.346836 0.904669 2.509071
2026-05-03 0.007235 0.018836 0.047921 0.127659 0.346598 0.931491 2.668676
2026-05-10 0.006443 0.017216 0.044943 0.123072 0.343861 0.951266 2.812390
2026-05-17 0.006050 0.016592 0.044453 0.125163 0.359974 1.025417 3.129680